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Weekly Recap | April 10, 2023

Weekly Recap | April 10, 2023

| April 13, 2023
Weekly Recap

April 3-7, 2023 Recap

S&P 500 Breaks Four-Week Rally

Stocks Slip Fractionally
Following strong gains the week prior, the S&P 500 inched lower during the holiday shortened equity trading week. Jobless claims rose more than expected and corporate layoff announcements jumped 15% in March. From a year ago, layoffs are up 300%. Meanwhile, March payrolls data released on the Good Friday equity market holiday showed hiring rose less than forecast, sending bond yields broadly lower.

For the Week…
The S&P 500 fell 0.06%, snapping a four-week winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.63% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined by 1.08%.  

March Hiring Slows
Nonfarm payrolls rose 236,000 in March (240,000 expected), down from February’s upwardly revised 326,000 increase (+311,000 originally reported). March jobs growth was well below the average monthly gains of 344,000 over the past six months. The labor force participation rate nudged upward to 62.6% from 62.5%, while the unemployment rate slipped to 3.5% from 3.6%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% last month, but on a year ago basis cooled to 4.2% from 4.6%.

Mixed Sector Performance
Six of the 11 S&P 500 sector groups posted losses last week. The more economically sensitive cyclicals sectors led to the downside, including Industrials (-3.37%) and Consumer Discretionary (-2.95%). Technology declined by 1.12%. Defensive oriented sectors led to the upside, including Utilities (+3.11%) and Healthcare (+3.11%).

Treasury Yields Decline
Following Friday’s payrolls report, Treasury yields were notably lower with the 10-year yield finishing the week at 3.38% (down 0.11% week-over-week). Since its peak in October, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined nearly 1%. 

The Latest from @CeteraIM

Wage Growth is Slowing

Layoffs are Rising

ISM Services PMI Shifts to Lower Gear

Economic Calendar

Monday, April 10
Wholesale Inventories.

Tuesday, April 11
Small Business Optimism.

Wednesday, April 12
Mortgage Activity, Consumer Price Index, FOMC Minutes.

Thursday, April 13
Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index.

Friday, April 14
Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, Consumer Sentiment.

The Federal Reserve will be pleased with the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The number of job openings declined by 1.3 million in the first two months of the year. There were less than 10 million job openings for the first time in 20 months. It’s still high, but the labor market imbalance is improving, which should help ease wage inflation. There are 1.7 job openings per unemployed job seeker.

This report is created by Cetera Investment Management LLC. For more insights and information from the team, follow @CeteraIM on Twitter.

About Cetera® Investment Management
Cetera Investment Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser owned by Cetera Financial Group®. Cetera Investment Management provides market perspectives, portfolio guidance, model management, and other investment advice to its affiliated broker-dealers, dually registered broker-dealers and registered investment advisers.

About Cetera Financial Group
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ.

The S&P 500 is an index of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry grouping (among other factors) designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is meant to reflect the risk/return characteristics of the large cap universe.

The NASDAQ Composite Index includes all domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad based index

The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.

The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.

The Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 1000 Index. It includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.

The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, which was originally called the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, is a broad based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government–related and corporate debt securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency) debt securities that are rated at least Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- by S&P. Taxable municipals, including Build America bonds and a small amount of foreign bonds traded in U.S. markets are also included. Eligible bonds must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings have a fluctuating average life of around 8.25 years.

The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index measures the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below, excluding emerging market debt. Payment-in-kind and bonds with predetermined step-up coupon provisions are also included. Eligible securities must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings has a fluctuating average life of around 6.3 years.

The Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and prerefunded bonds. Eligible securities must be rated investment grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by Moody’s and S&P and have at least one year until final maturity.

The MSCI EAFE Index is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets (Europe, Australasia, Far East) excluding the U.S. and Canada. The Index is market-capitalization weighted.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets. It is a float-adjusted market capitalization index.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified index that measures 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities in five groups (energy, agriculture, industrial metals, precious metals, and livestock), which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity. No single commodity can comprise less than 2% or more than 15% of the index; and no group can represent more than 33% of the index.

The S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index is a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark for investment performance in the crude oil market.

The S&P GSCI Gold Index, a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark tracking the COMEX gold futures market.

The U.S. Dollar Index is a weighted geometric mean that provides a value measure of the United States dollar relative to a basket of major foreign currencies. The index, often carrying a USDX or DXY moniker, started in March 1973, beginning with a value of the U.S. Dollar Index at 100.000.